Friday, August 1, 2014

Our statistical intuition is misleading

Our statistical intuition is misleading

First, this reasoning does not take into account either the fact that there is a very large  number of planes taking off every day. Certainly, there is very little chance of dying in a plane crash. But since it is nearly 100,000 flights taking off each day around the world, the probability of a plane crash in the year becomes relatively strong.

http://droidmonster.webs.com/apps/blog/show/42534892-what-is-the-ultimate-nature-of-reality-
https://mysquidoolenses.wordpress.com/2014/07/31/the-discovery-of-gravitational-waves-s-inflation/
http://myandroidstuff.tumblr.com/post/93391711549/roving-mars

Then, another shortcoming of this argument is not to consider the time period in which the proceedings are accidents . Again, the probability that three planes fall this week is tiny. But if the question is asked "what is the probability that 3 planes crashing in the same week for the past 10 years ", the probability rises to ... 60%.

It is very human to imagine a terrible law of series when one is faced with such a series of air disasters. Yet it does not exist, and it is no more dangerous to fly right now in 2013, a record year for air safety.

Find more information about this topic on the blog "Statistically Yours" , Avner Bar-Hen.

READ The plane is still a safe mode of transportation?

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